Thursday, November 29, 2012

What the 2012 Election did (and didn't) Tell Us

Welcome to Tony Island blog!

Just another post in a series of occasional analyses of the 2012 Presidential election. Here, I want to highlight some things that were made evident by the final results.

In no particular order -

1) There is no mandate - Every victor claims a mandate, even when there isn't one. And this is a case of "there isn't one". Obama's popular vote numbers and electoral votes were down from 2008. How could there be a mandate? The Democrats successfully demonized "the rich" and tarred and feathered Romney with that evil moniker. Since the economic meltdown was caused by Wall Street, anything touching Wall Street (however remotely) was deemed bad.

In reality, it's tough to change horses mid-stream. The electorate didn't quite like the alternative enough and thus stuck with the devil they know.

2) The Republican Party isn't dead - despite grave dancing by Progressives, the Republican party is far from dead. Republican Governorships are at an all time high of 30. They successfully held onto the House (some minor seats changed party) and held steady in the Senate for the most part. The American electorate is split and thus handed the country the same messy Congress and President as before the election. So there's hope for Republicans yet.

2a) The Tea Party movement isn't dead - Yes, there were some setbacks for the Tea Party this election cycle. I think any group that is born of a furor of energy will eventually peter out. The Tea Party's energy was spent quite a bit in 2010 and there wasn't much left in the tank for 2012. As the economy continues to tread water and taxes begin their inevitable hike along with the messiness of Obamacare, the Tea Party will refocus and become a force again in 2016 (though I think 2014 will be a key milestone in determining the movement's future)

3) Women are the swing voters - When it's all said and done, I believe that women will be the key to Republican success. While everyone is busy pandering to Latinos or other "important demographic" groups, it's women who should be pandered to. While there was recognition of this fact at the Convention, there didn't seem to be enough penetration of the women's vote to make a difference. Republicans should continue to respect the sanctity of life and be against abortion, but the issue shouldn't become a political wedge to separate the party from women. Life should be celebrated, women's role in creating life should be revered, but not to an extreme that women feel threatened if Republicans are in charge. We also need to balance women's concerns with business needs.

4) The 2016 field will be deep & wide - The only silver lining to Obama's re-election is the vast field of candidates on tap from both parties in 2016. I believe that the Republican crop will be especially deep if such up  and coming luminaries as Rubio, Martinez and Haley, among others, run. They are all true conservatives with vibrant personalities who will ignite a spark in the Republican party.

5) Obama will continue to lie - I have to actually give Obama some credit as he will finally meet with Romney on November 29. Obama had told his supporters on election night that he would meet with Romney and then "forgot" until asked by a reporter in a press conference a week after the election. But that one "truth" doesn't justify all the lies he's told these past four years. And all the lies he will tell in the coming four.

6) Obama will over reach in his 2nd Term - despite reassurances following his re-election that he "understands" the history of 2nd term Presidential failures, I believe Obama's super-ego is too large not to attempt an over reach and it won't be pretty when it happens. I can't quite put my finger on what he will do, but rest assured he will do something stupid. He's no smarter than Clinton and look at that fiasco.

7) The parties are even - if you look at the 56 year time span (1960 - 2016) of modern politics, you find that both parties controlled the Presidency for exactly 28 years each (Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, Clinton; Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Bush). So it's quite silly for any one side to claim superiority in the Presidential arena. Yes demographics are changing, perhaps to the Democrats favor, but not all is lost. Bold moves by Republicans in economic theory and social issues, similar to what elected Reagan for two terms, will have the party back in full swing with REAL mandates for change. Unless Democrats continually nominate black men, they won't have a lock on minority votes. And eventually you run out of special interest groups or their requests become too big and you have nothing else to offer.

That's it for now. What do YOU think the election told us? Let us know by leaving come comments below.

Thanks for reading Tony Island blog and please come back soon!

Friday, November 23, 2012

"Bush hangover", religion doom GOP White House bid

Welcome to Tony Island blog!

Well, it's been a few weeks since the presidential election so I thought now would be a good time to post some thoughts on it all.

If you listened solely to conservative talk shows, you got the feeling that momentum was on Romney's side, especially after the first debate which he handled masterfully. Things got dicey in the remaining two debates as Mr Obama came out swinging and a bit snarky. Another momentum obstacle was Hurricane Sandy. I was afraid that this would give the President an edge and I think it did. He showed himself to be presidential more or less. Governor Christie's warming up to the President also helped.

I'm not sure those points actually are what did Romney in though. For that, I think we can point to two big issues - Bush and religion. I think the Democrats were able to successfully link Romney to Bush (as Republicans linked Mondale to Carter in 1984) and make Romney the second coming of Bush. While I don't believe this would have been true (Romney was far more successful than Bush in business), the electorate thought otherwise.

Another rarely mentioned point was religion. Romney's Mormon religion posed a problem for Conservative Christians, many of whom don't believe that Mormons are Christians. I think this held them back from pulling the lever for Romney. As a matter of fact, I think they actually sat out this election cycle as the overall voting numbers and percentage are down from 2008. While Christian Conservatives may not have been enough to push Romney over the top by themselves, I certainly think it would have helped.

But there's more to this pie than two slices. Another two slices are the Democrats skill in dividing the electorate and Obama's race card. We must congratulate the Democrats on successfully dividing the electorate into little pieces. From birth control to abortion, the Democrats used the majority women's vote and hammered Republicans from all sides. While Republicans have been against abortion in their party platform for years, the Democrats successfully used the issue to scare millions of women. Neither party would be able to overturn Roe vs. Wade on its own nor would they as it's a HUGE money maker for them. The Republicans held control of Congress for 6 years while Bush was in office and yet abortion is as available as ever. Birth control is a private matter and no national Republican candidate was calling for its elimination or control, yet Democrats used this naked lie to get out the vote. It was amazing how a college student's testimony to Congress back in the spring was masterfully used in the fall elections.

With absolutely no agenda for moving America "forward" (despite the campaign slogan), the Democrats trotted out the old chestnuts of women's rights, minority rights and senior citizens. The all-white, all-rich Republican ticket didn't stand a chance.

Another salvo to the Republicans was Obama's race. Blacks voted upward of 90+% for Obama. No amount of pandering was going to change those numbers significantly.

Despite all that, Romney actually gained electoral votes over McCain and depending on which vote totals you use, came within earshot of McCain's totals or actually above them.

The Republican party isn't dead yet. There's work to do to straighten the ship, but it can be done.

Share your thoughts on why Romney lost in the comment section below.

Thanks for reading Tony Island blog and please come back again!

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Happy Thanksgiving!


Welcome to Tony Island blog!

Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers. Please take a moment to let us know what you're thankful for this holiday in the comment section below.

Have a safe holiday weekend!

Thanks for reading Tony Island blog!

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

VOTE today ... for Love of Country

Welcome to Tony Island Blog!

Just a reminder to please VOTE today...for Love of Country, not revenge!

No matter who you vote for, get out there and do it. It's so important that your voice be heard. And it WILL be heard! Depending on your state, you'll have a slate full of candidates other than the major parties (we had 4 choices, IIRC).

Young men and women literally died for us to have the right to vote.

So, please, get out and vote!

Let us know who you voted for and why! Feel free to include local candidates such as US Senator or Congress person.

Thanks for reading Tony Island blog!

Monday, November 05, 2012

The Hope and the Change - free on

Welcome to Tony Island blog!

I wanted to get out the word about a free movie (The Hope and The Change) that is available on Hulu,com.

The official description from sums it up nicely: "The Hope & The Change interviews 40 Democrats and Independents who were onetime supporters and voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but due to runaway spending, unemployment, debt, and deficits, can no longer continue their support of President Obama in 2012."

Check it out. Tell us what you think in the comment section below.

More importantly...VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2012!

You changed your clocks on Sunday - now Change your President on Tuesday!

Thanks for reading Tony Island blog!